International tourist arrivals across OECD countries reached a record 847 million in 2025, marking a 3.4% year-on-year increase and building on strong growth of 8.1% in 2024. Yet beneath this headline figure lies a more complex story of resilience, risk, and rapid transformation.
According to the OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 report, the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global travel flows and increased operating costs, weighing heavily on traveller confidence. “Tourism continues to grow, generating business opportunities, jobs and tax revenues across the OECD,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “Governments and businesses need to work together to sustain this growth and build resilience.”
The performance divide is stark. Among the strongest performers in 2025 were Finland (16.5% growth), Japan (15.8%), Korea (15.7%) and Norway (12.5%), benefiting from improved air connectivity and favourable exchange rates. In contrast, international arrivals declined in Canada (-0.6%), Germany (-0.8%), Ireland (-2.8%) and the United States (-5.5%).
The OECD survey reveals that one-third of member countries expect tourism performance to surpass 2025 levels by the end of 2026, with several destinations likely to record new highs. However, concerns over safety, affordability and cancellations are pushing travellers toward more familiar destinations, shorter stays and lower-cost options.
Climate change is emerging as an equally formidable threat. Extreme heat waves across Asia and Europe are fundamentally reshaping travel patterns. CNN reports that the World Meteorological Organization data shows Asia is warming at twice the global average, with extreme heat becoming increasingly frequent. Travellers are increasingly shifting toward “cool summer” destinations and off-peak travel, fundamentally altering traditional tourism seasons. Destinations that once relied on summer tourism are seeing visitors flee to cooler climes, while “shoulder seasons” are becoming the new high season.
What this means for the travel economy: Destinations that invest in crisis preparedness, diversify source markets, and adapt to shifting traveller preferences — including climate-resilient infrastructure and year-round attractions — will emerge as the winners in 2026 and beyond. Climate resilience is no longer optional; it is essential for survival in an increasingly volatile global environment.
